Global economic growth is projected to soften from a downwardly revised 3 percent in 2018 to 2.9 percent in 2019 amid rising downside risks to the outlook, the World Bank has announced.
It mainly contributes the slowdown to the softened manufacturing activities, elevated trade tensions, and some large emerging markets which have experienced substantial financial market pressures.
The January 2019 Global Economic Prospects says growth among advanced economies is forecast to drop to 2 percent this year.
And the slowing external demand, rising borrowing costs, and persistent policy uncertainties are expected to weigh on the outlook for the emerging market and developing economies. Growth for this group is anticipated to hold steady at a weaker-than-expected 4.2 percent this year.
“At the beginning of 2018 the global economy was firing on all cylinders, but it lost speed during the year and the ride could get even bumpier in the year ahead”, said World Bank Chief Executive Officer Kristalina Georgieva. “As economic and financial headwinds intensify for emerging and developing countries, the world’s progress in reducing extreme poverty could be jeopardized. To keep the momentum, countries need to invest in people, foster inclusive growth, and build resilient societies.”
Experts say the upswing in commodity exporters has stagnated, while activity in commodity importers is decelerating.
They say per capita growth will be insufficient to narrow the income gap with advanced economies in about 35 percent of the emerging market and developing economies in 2019, with the share increased to 60 percent in countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence.
They say a number of developments could act as a further brake on activity. A sharper tightening in borrowing costs could depress capital inflows and lead to slower growth in many emerging markets and developing economies.
Experts also say past increases in public and private debt could heighten vulnerability to swings in financing conditions and market sentiment. Intensifying trade tensions could also disrupt globally interconnected value chains.
